I am going to take so much flak for this, and you know what? If I cared, then I wouldn’t be writing this post. Good morning. I think I’m going to go take it out on the street while the rain still falls.
Listed with RAR and FIP are all AL pitchers who 1) didn’t make the All-Star team, 2) have BABIPs over .250, and 3) have a greater RAR than Tim Wakefield.
After the jump…
…be astounded by the sheer idiocy of Joe Maddon.
- Cliff Lee, 33.7 RAR, 3.27 FIP
- Jon Lester, 32.6 RAR, 3.22 FIP
- CC Sabathia, 28.4 RAR, 3.73 FIP
- Dallas Braden, 27.7 RAR, 3.40 FIP
- Gavin Floyd, 27.6 RAR, 3.71 FIP
- James Shields, 27.6 RAR, 3.71 FIP
- Jered Weaver, 25.3 RAR, 3.80 FIP
- Carl Pavano, 24.7 RAR, 3.61 FIP
- Nick Blackburn, 22.9 RAR, 3.97 FIP
- John Danks, 22.0 RAR, 3.93 FIP
- Jarrod Washburn, 21.2 RAR, 3.88 FIP
That’s 11 non-All-Stars, including Dallas Braden and Carl Pavano, who have been more valuable than Wakefield this season.
Of course, if there’s a spot on the All-Star team reserved for starters with a FIP over 4.00, then Wakefield probably deserves that, since he has the second-best FIP over 4 (his 4.17 is behind only the illustrious Brad Bergesen’s 4.13) and the best RAR in that group.
Tim Wakefield is, simply put, not an All-Star caliber player. Not unless the best twenty or so starters in the AL were to suddenly become awful.
Ladies... 
For us non stat geeks who are too lazy to look it up, what are RAR and FIP?
Oh. I’m terribly sorry – I really should’ve thought of that.
FIP is a stat that’s on the same scale as ERA (the lower, the better; 2 is great, 3 is good, 4 is mediocre, 5 sucks) but is calculated using only walks, strikeouts, and homeruns so as to remove the effect of the pitcher’s defense and luck on balls in play.
RAR is explained here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues
interesting. Thank you
I must be really slow, because I can’t find the RAR definition on that link. I’m throughly confused.
MK, just read the seven-part thing about pitching. RAR technically stands for Runs Above Replacement.
Pam, FIP is cool because it doesn’t penalize a pitcher for having a terrible defense behind him. If a team has a bad defense, then there are balls in play that become hits, but a good defense would have turned those into outs.
Like, if Yuniesky Betancourt is playing shortstop behind Zack Greinke, and someone hits a grounder up the middle, Betancourt’s not going to get it because he sucks at defense. That punishes Greinke, because if that runner comes around to score, it’s an earned run, and his ERA would go up. A good defensive shortstop would have been able to get to that same grounder, but stuff like that is totally out of a pitcher’s control.
Walks, strikeouts, and homers ARE the things that a defense doesn’t effect, so those are the only events used in measuring FIP. It’s a more accurate way of showing what a PITCHER gave up, as opposed to runs that scored because his defense is crappy.
A good defensive shortstop would have been able to get to that same grounder
So, it would still be scored a hit rather than an error?
Although walks and strikeouts are affected by how tight the strike zone is on a particular day.
Predictably, I enjoyed this post, Crane. Stats FTW!
I wish we had had FIP on my HS softball teams. Although that still wouldn’t have prevented our 3B from blowing my only chance at a no-hitter. (Yes, it’s been 13 years and I’m still bitter. :))